Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has reached a bottom throughout the weekend, and the news of (some) ships going through opened the way for a pullback in the US dollar and Oil. The progress is still thin but nascent as we enter the third week of the US-Iran War. Major currencies are hence seeing some relief; the question remains whether it will be prolonged.
NZD/USD has been under pressure ever since the commencement of the US-Iran-Israel conflict, now moving into the third week of the conflict.
The Greenback has seen safe-haven demand throughout the first half of March1, strongly correlated to gains in energy commodities, particularly from Crude Oil. Asian and Pacific nations are the most exposed to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and as the commodity is settled in the reserve currency, the US dollar has naturally appreciated.
Antipodean currencies like the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar are intrinsically linked to Asian economies2.
US (WTI) Oil daily chart, March 16, 2026. Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
After gapping higher to $102 at the Globex open, WTI Oil has eased below $96, with some news of an Abu Dhabi and a couple of Iranian tankers managing to cross the strait; hence, with the recent tight correlations in currency flows and commodity flows, NZD, which had taken one of the largest hits, is attempting a comeback.
Gapping down to 0.57730, the price action faked out below its March descending channel before rebounding as Oil corrected. Bulls will now face a test as price action re-enters the technical pattern and tests the December 2025 0.5850 support. The RSI momentum is back to neutral, opening the door for more movement ahead.
The Royal Bank of New Zealand is the only major central bank not releasing its rate decision this week3, which reduces decision-making uncertainty.
This week will feature meetings of the Royal Bank of Australia, the FOMC, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank4, also in the middle of a still-continuing Middle Eastern war.
NZD/USD daily chart, March 16, 2026. Source: TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Resistance levels
- 0.5885 to 0.59 Momentum Pivot
- 0.5930 to 0.5950 (+/- 70 pips) Pivotal Resistance
- March Resistance 0.60 to 0.60150
- July 2025 and 2026 Resistance 0.6060 to 0.6070
Support levels
- 0.5850 December 2025 Pivotal Support
- 0.5770 to 0.5790 Mini-Support
- Main Support 0.5720 to 0.5750
This article and its contents are intended for educational purposes only and should not be considered trading advice. Forex trading is high-risk. Losses may exceed deposits.
